So, I’ve been meaning to get back into game dev. Should I start with something simple and scrape by with what I have or go with a big and ambitious idea?

Always start small. Pay attention to what you learn, finish what you start, then parlay what you learned from finishing that project into another, bigger subsequent project. Take on progressively harder and more ambitious projects, which will result in the virtuous cycle of increasing your skills and your ability to determine what you're capable of, which will allow you to take on more ambitious projects.

When you lift weights, you don't just go straight to the heaviest weights at the start - that's how you get injured. Instead, you build up strength with weights just heavy enough to require effort to complete the set, but not heavy enough to cause permanent injury. When you want to go distance running, you don't jump straight into a full marathon, you'll wreck yourself and get injured. You start by running a kilometer comfortably, then two, then three, and slowly building up your ability until you can do the full marathon.

Jumping straight into your magnum opus game development project is no different. You want to start small, then gradually increase what you're capable of over time. We do this in professional circles by starting as a junior with lesser scope and responsibility, then leveling up to mid and senior levels by increasing scope and responsibility gradually. We do this in most amateur circles as well - you learn to cook eggs, rice, and other simple things before trying to bake your own croquembouche or smoke a craft barbecue brisket. Figure out where you are, then take on progressively harder tasks to level up and increase your ability.

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